461 Million Guns? Survey’s Firearm Numbers Nearly Matches 125 Years of Federal Data
A surprising number has been revealed from comparing the ratios of firearms found in over a hundred years of federal government data on firearms production, export, and import to the firearms reported to be owned by gun owners in the William English’s survey done in mid 2026.
Ratios validate the Survey’s methods and numbers of firearms findings.
The survey paper, released in August of 2026 is the best designed and executed survey to date in an attempt to determine the extent of firearms ownership in the United States. The 2026 Survey has been designed to overcome minor defects in the original survey done in 2021. Questions have been sharpened and clarified. Ownership has been limited to the individual questioned.
The Survey respondents are reasonably represented in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The survey participants were not volunteers for this particular survey.
First, a national representative sample of 51,398 individuals aged 18 or over was chosen. Then a screening question was used to identify 18,206 individuals as potential gun owners. Then 16,688 individuals were validated as gun owners. In the middle of the survey, a question was used to validate the responses. Only people who read the entire question could answer it correctly. 98.2% of respondents passed the internal checks. Their responses were used to determine the numeric results of the survey.
The 16,688 respondents were found to average 5.2 firearms per owner, or about 87,000 firearms. This is a very large sample. The smallest sample was in Vermont, with 28 respondents. California had 1,549 respondents. Texas had 1,686.
It is reasonable to believe the floor for the number of firearms in the private stock in the United States is 461 million, as stated in the Survey. Such is the lowest reasonable number. It is a very conservative number because of choices made in the interest of caution. Owners reporting over 100 firearms of a particular type were trimmed from the estimate.
Households with incomes of over $150,000 only showed in 9% of the respondents. They should be about 23% of respondents. A low share of high income households from surveys is said to be a common phenomena. This matters because the percentage of people owning firearms increases with increasing income, and the number of guns owned per person increases with increasing income.
The Survey estimates a total of 461 million firearms in the private stock of the USA, including 208 million handguns, 154 million rifles, and 99 million shotguns.
The comparison numbers are from figures compiled by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF). They were placed into a spreadsheet available online by the Trace. Using the numbers in the data from ATF/Trace, we find 513 million at the end of 2024, including 231,263,816 handguns, 171,038,075 rifles, and 110,688,257 million shotguns.
The numbers show there is some attrition of firearms lost, destroyed, thrown away, or worn out over time. The comparison is with the ratios of handguns, rifles, and shotguns from reports to the government of firearms manufactured – exported + imported over more than 125 years. The agreement is astounding.
The ratios are nearly identical, as shown in the graphic. The largest difference is in shotguns, where the difference is .1%. The numbers come from two completely different sources. One set is from the government statistics of cumulative firearms over more than 125 years. The other is from a survey of gun owners reporting what they have in 2026.
Skeptics may say: In a large sample of 87 thousand firearms selected at random, you would expect the resulting ratios to be extremely close. Yes. That is exactly what you would expect of a very large sample selected by random. That is the point. It is validation of the sample methodology. It is validation of the accuracy of the reporting by respondents.
The ratio validates the Survey method, respondents accuracy of reporting, and randomness of the sample.
If, as seems likely, further refinements in a future survey show higher numbers of firearms in the private stock of the USA, the ratio would not be expected to change.
About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
