Montana FWP Lowers Wolf Population Estimate, Proposes New Hunting and Trapping Rules
New Model Cuts Montana’s Wolf Population Estimate
Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks released its 2025 Annual Wolf Report on Friday alongside proposed regulations for the 2026-27 wolf hunting and trapping season. The report introduces a new population and distribution prediction model that estimates the state’s wolf population is significantly smaller than the agency previously believed.
The report draws on two systems. The older model, which FWP has used as its primary monitoring method since 2021, estimated 181 packs and 1,094 wolves statewide for 2025. The updated model estimated 155 packs and 725 wolves for the same period. Both models identify a decline in wolf populations from 2013 through 2025.
“At this point, both models are being used and presented,” said Nick Danielson, FWP Communications Bureau chief. “(The new model) has not yet gone through the same peer review and publication process as (the old model). Until that occurs, we want the commission and the public to see estimates from both models in our report.”
The older model was developed with the University of Montana and uses hunter surveys, known wolf locations and habitat covariates, relying on wolf counts through 2018. The updated model took several years to develop and incorporates counts collected between 2007 and 2025.
Smaller Quota Draws Concern
The proposed regulations set the statewide hunting quota at 250 wolves, down from 452 last year. If the newer estimate of 725 wolves is reliable, that quota could eliminate roughly a third of the state’s total population.
Josh Schott, Rocky Mountain coordinator with conservation group Team Wolf, said the new figures confirm long-standing criticism. “Wildlife biologists, conservationists and advocates have been saying that FWP has been vastly overestimating wolf numbers for years,” he said. “Now we have proof there are 400 fewer wolves than what they’ve been saying.”
Schott warned that meeting the proposed quota would bring the population to legal minimums, leaving no margin for poaching or disease. Montana’s management plan sets the lowest legal population at 15 breeding pairs, or roughly 450 wolves statewide. He said maintaining populations at that minimum reduces the likelihood of a healthy, resilient population and full ecological recovery.
Management History and Next Steps
The Northern Rocky Mountain gray wolf has been protected under the Endangered Species Act since 1973. Between 1979 and 1996, federal agencies worked to restore wolves in northwestern Montana, central Idaho and the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, with animals from those populations dispersing into Montana. The population was federally delisted in 2011, transferring management to FWP. Hunting seasons began in 2009.
The FWP Fish and Wildlife Commission will discuss the proposed 2026-27 regulations at its regular meeting on Aug. 19, when commissioners may approve or amend the proposal. Public comment will be accepted through Aug. 12 and during the meeting, in person or virtually. Online registration for virtual participation opens Aug. 4 and closes at noon Aug. 18.
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